ANALYSTS PREDICT BPOST DIVIDEND TO BE CUT BY 60% THIS YEAR

Analyst David Kerstens at Jefferies predicts bpost faced cost pressures of around €80 million this year, mainly to improve working conditions through the hiring of 1,000 additional FTE’s (adding 3% to headcount). BPost Track My Parcel  has made it entirely natural to track your preferred parcel across the international boundaries as well. This has put the stable dividend at risk
“bpost have cut EPS estimates by 24-36% and now estimate FY19E EBIT will fall 28% to €308m, vs. previous guidance for a relatively more stable result of around €390m at last summer’s CMD. Bpost tracking likewise perceived as the Belgian Post Group, is the Belgian package following administration in charge of the conveyance of national just as universal mail.As a result, we estimate bpost’s EBIT margin will fall to 8.0% this year, in line with the average of the European postal sector, versus >20% only two years ago.
“Beyond FY19E, I project a gradual further decline in EBIT, with increasing mail volume pressure of up to 9%, driven by accelerating e-substitution and the new operating model for mail, partly offset by a recovery of Radial’s profitability beyond FY19E from 28% customer churn post acquisition.”
“The stable FY18E dividend of €1.31 with a yield of 16.5% does not look sustainable in view of an estimated free cash flow cover in the range of 55%-75%. As a result, we assume the dividend will be cut by 60% this year, based on a pay-out ratio of 75% of free cash flow, resulting in a sector-average yield.
4Q18E results on March 19th are expected to reflect a steep 30% EBITDA recovery, after an 18% decrease in 9m18, driven by (Radial) seasonality and cost phasing effects, as well as a €7.9m book gain on the sale of the old Brussels X sorting centre for €25m on December 21st.

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